Why Is Russia Stealing And Burning Grain?
What if it's a concerted strategy to raise the price of grain?
I have a theory: I think a high-level decision-making authority in Russia is burning and stealing Ukraine's grain to intentionally increase the price of grain.
I’m not married to it yet, but I do think it’s there, so I’m interested in putting this out there to see what kind of critiques and modes of falsification there might be; unfalsifiable theories are basically useless, and I might be too caught up in the data to see obvious external points of critique.
What I think this does for Russia is two things:
1. Increases profit from their record 2022 harvest
On April 13, 2022, a Russian consultancy, SOVECON, forecast:
a record 2022 wheat crop of 87.4 million tonnes… raising its previous forecast of 86.5 million tonnes. (Neely, Jason, “Russia to harvest record wheat crop in 2022 -Sovecon”, Reuters via NASDAQ, April 21, 2022)
On May 13, 2022, Putin announced a record harvest and increased wheat sales. Quoting Reuters on May 12, 2022:
“Russia currently expects to harvest 130 million tonnes of grain in 2022, including 87 million tonnes of wheat, Putin told a meeting of top economic officials in Moscow. Russia produced a record grain crop 133.5 million tonnes in 2020, including 85.9 million tonnes of wheat. The crop was smaller in 2021.” (Staff, “Putin says large Russian grain harvest to support higher exports”, Reuters, May 12, 2022)
Drawing from SEAKRIME project data, a significant increase in shipping activity beginning in late April can be observed.
Three shipments with unrecorded amounts occur in January through March of 2022:
SOURIA departing Sevastopol on January 23, 2022, cargo unknown but presumably grain since it was loaded at the AVLITA terminal
FINIKIA departing Feodosia on January 28, 2022, cargo and destination unknown
LAODECIEA departing Feodosia on February 18, 2022, with a cargo of grain, amount unknown, delivered to Tartus
In fact, out of 102 recorded cargo shipments I have, only two occur in April before 2022:
SORMOVSKY-48, Kerch —> Kavkaz, cargo barley, 2800 tonnes, April 10, 2019
LAODICEA, Feodosia —> Tartus, cargo grain, tonnage unrecorded, April 3, 2019
In April 2022 alone, eight shipments ran, including multiple 27k+ ton runs on relatively massive bulk loaders, the MATROS KOSHKA and the MATROS POZYNICH, each capable of nearly 30k tons.
Something is different in April 2022 versus April 2021, 2020, 2019 or 2018, and I think it might have to do with the record harvest that Putin announced.
2. Increases control over commodity markets in occupied areas
From reporting inside the occupied areas, we have some idea of what food markets look like right now; there are multiple Ukrainian media reports, from which we can read that:
According to an RFE/RL affiliate in Crimea, stolen Kherson produce is sold for reduced prices, according to both Ukrainian farmers and Russian-sponsored authorities in Crimea.
Stepantsov, Maxim & Veselova, Victoria, “"Farmers were warned to cut off their heads": Where in the Crimea come cheap Kherson vegetables”, April 29, 2022, Krym.Realii (Crimean project of the Ukrainian service of Radio Liberty), https://ua.krymr.com/a/khersonschyna-krym-fermery-ovochi-viyna/31827039.html
YALTA - In the Russian-annexed Crimea, agricultural products from the Kherson region are being sold at a reduced price, trying to keep prices from jumping after Russia's full-scale military invasion of Ukraine. Moscow-controlled local authorities say such food supplies have become possible as part of "economic ties" with the Kherson region, a region seized by Russian troops for the second month and where regular fighting continues. Kherson authorities and farmers claim that their enterprises have been looted by the Russian military under threat of reprisals. How many Kherson vegetables have already been sold in Crimea and how they end up there, read in the material Crimea.Realii .
It became known in early April about the supply of products from the Kherson region to the Crimea. Moscow-controlled head of the region Sergei Aksonov (according to Aksenov) and c. at. Crimean Agriculture Minister Alime Zaredinov claims that the "established stable supply" of Kherson products to the peninsula is the result of "economic cooperation" with the Kherson region captured by the Russian military.
Ukrainian authorities deny cooperation with the annexed Crimea and say Russian forces that have seized the Kherson region are looting local vegetable stores, threatening farmers and exporting grain from the region.
Crimean and Russian media also claim "economic ties" between Crimea and the Kherson region. According to them, there is news of lower prices for agricultural products, which jumped on the peninsula after the start of the Russian military invasion of Ukraine.
"Products from Kherson and Zaporizhia regions are sold at the Privoz market in Simferopol. There are special places for this. The price is lower than in the Crimea, "she said. at. Minister of Industrial Policy of Crimea Olena Elekchyan .
According to her, a total of almost 300 tons of agricultural products from the southern regions of mainland Ukraine were sold in Crimea.
In April, more than 700 agricultural fairs with below-market prices were promised to Crimeans.
Products from the Kherson region are sold near the main entrance to the Central Market of Yalta. This was announced by the head of the city administration Yanina Pavlenko.
"They met the first batch of agricultural products from the liberated ( so called in Russia occupation of Ukrainian regions by the Russian army - Kyrgyz Republic ) Kherson region. A truck with a "borsch set" arrived in Yalta and immediately gathered the queue - the quality is excellent, the prices for some products are even lower than recommended by the Ministry of Industrial Policy of Crimea. Beets, cabbage, potatoes, carrots - 47 rubles / kg, radish and radish - 50, celery - 70 ", - said Pavlenko .
She claims that she is working with the Ministry of Industrial Policy to "increase supplies" and organize permanent fairs with Kherson products, which can be pre-located near the Yalta bus station. (emphasis added)
And a second report from Obozrevatel suggests goods from seized Ukrainian farms are being sold in Crimea.
Petik, Marina, “Free water and expensive vegetables: how in Crimea they cash in on the loot in Ukraine (Бесплатная вода и дорогие овощи: как в Крыму наживаются на награбленном в Украине)”, Obozrevatel (Ukrainian news magazine), May 13, 2022, https://war.obozrevatel.com/besplatnaya-voda-i-dorogie-ovoschi-kak-v-kryimu-nazhivayutsya-na-nagrablennom-v-ukraine.htm
At the same time, all these incursions did not affect the prices for vegetables and berries in the Crimea . The invaders are not going to lower them. And they take most of the looted crop to Russia.
Although the Crimeans were happy back in April that Kherson vegetables and the first strawberries would finally beat the earnings of local speculators. Prices for some vegetables and fruits have already been raised to Moscow. The occupiers wrote that trucks with harvest from mainland Ukraine were about to go to the peninsula, there would be a lot of them, and prices would fall. But it was not there.
"Everything is as it was, and it remains. The first strawberry was brought from Kherson, it costs 350-450 rubles (150-190 UAH) like the Crimean one . Although, along with Kherson strawberries, there are a lot of strawberries in the markets," says Valentina Semenova, a resident of Crimea.
On the market in Yalta, tomatoes are sold for 180 - 250 rubles. (75 - 105 UAH), cucumbers - 100 rubles. (42 UAH), young potatoes cost 200 rubles. (84 UAH), small is sold for 100-120 rubles. (42 - 50 UAH), young cabbage - 55-125 rubles. (23 - 52 UAH), zucchini - 120 rubles. (50 UAH) .
Kherson entrepreneurs say that the Russians do not allow them to export their products to the controlled territory of Ukraine. Therefore, at the wholesale market in Velikie Kopani, they are forced to sell young vegetables and berries for a penny.
For example, young cabbage is given here for 5 UAH per kilogram, young potatoes - 10-30 UAH, cucumber - 10-14 UAH, tomatoes - 80-90 UAH, zucchini - 20 UAH.
Why, in this case, in the Crimea, their goods are so expensive, they advise you to ask the Crimean sellers.
“Because there are hucksters. They will not reduce prices, and part of the crop will be taken to Russia, where they can sell even more expensive ,” says one of the entrepreneurs. He also explains that it is possible to take goods to the controlled territory only for large bribes to the Russian military. But in this case, the price on the market in the free territory will already rise. (emphasis added)
Increasing the global price of wheat, at the same time that Russia is fostering dependence of occupied-zone residents on a highly controlled, insular marketplace, would have the effect of making those residents more reliant on Russian social support systems.