Updates on outracing a famine
Selected news clipping and "cards", June 2, 2022
War is making an unprecedented world food crisis even worse
Belgrave, James, “Needs at all-time high even before the war in Ukraine, food crises report says”, wfp.org (official U.N. World Food Programme website), May 4, 2022
Around 193 million people in 53 countries or territories experienced acute food insecurity at crisis or worse levels in 2021, according to the global standard for measuring food insecurity – the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC).
This represents a dramatic increase of nearly 25 percent – 38 million people – compared with the already record numbers of 2020.
Among these, 570,000 people across Ethiopia, South Sudan, southern Madagascar and Yemen were classified in the most severe phase of acute food insecurity – at IPC5 or ‘catastrophe/famine’ - and required urgent action to avert widespread collapse of livelihoods, starvation and death.
When looking at the same 39 countries or territories featured in all editions of the report, the number of people facing crisis or worse (IPC 3 or above) nearly doubled between 2016 and 2021, with unabated rises each year since 2018. These worrying trends are the result of multiple drivers feeding into one another, ranging from conflict to environmental and climate to economic and health crises with poverty and inequality as underlying causes.
Conflict remains the main driver of food insecurity, the report confirms. While its analysis does not include the impacts of the conflict in Ukraine, it shows that the war has already exposed the interconnected nature and fragility of global food systems, with serious consequences for global food and nutrition security.
A global famine is potentially at hand because of Putin’s war and the blockade on Ukrainian grain
Washington Post Editorial Board, “Opinion: Putin is starving millions of people around the world”, Washington Post, May 22, 2022
Mr. Putin’s next moves will decide whether much of the developing world experiences mass hunger and even famine this year and next. World leaders are urging the Russian leader to at least allow grain shipments out of Ukraine to help feed tens of millions of people in countries that rely heavily on imported food — such as Sri Lanka, Burkina Faso, Yemen, Sudan, Lebanon, Tanzania, Uganda, Egypt, Tunisia and Cameroon.
“If you have any heart at all for the rest of the world, regardless of how you feel about Ukraine, you need to open up those ports,” U.N. World Food Program head David Beasley said at the recent Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing conference. Mr. Beasley’s team normally sources about half of its grain from Ukraine. “Millions of people around the world will die because these ports are being blocked.”
It turns out not only is Mr. Putin blockading shipments on the Black Sea, he has even had Russian ships steal Ukrainian grain and try to sell it, according to CNN. Many nations refused to buy the pilfered goods, but it appears the grain ended up in Syria, one of Mr. Putin’s few allies.
To their credit, other nations have stepped up to provide more money and food. The United States has already given $2.6 billion to help prevent the food crisis from turning into widespread famine, and lawmakers just approved nearly $5 billion more for food and humanitarian needs as part of a Ukraine aid bill.
But with 20 million metric tons of grain and corn just sitting in storage at Ukrainian ports right now, there’s only so much the rest of the world can do. Mr. Putin’s war is on the verge of becoming Mr. Putin’s global famine.
Ukraine’s grain exports could reach 1.5 million tons in May; they’re trying for 3 million per month
Reuters staff, “Ukraine grain exports could reach 1.5 mln tonnes in May - analyst”, Reuters, May 23, 2022
Ukraine’s grain exports could reach 1.5 million tonnes in May compared with around 1 million tonnes in April, Roman Slaston, Director General of the Ukrainian Agrarian Business Club Association, said on Monday.
He told a briefing that the near-term aim was to increase the volume to 3 million tonnes per month. He put the rise in exports down to the establishment of alternative routes to export grain after Russia blocked Ukraine’s main sea ports.
Grain production is expected to drop to 19.2 million tons per year; grain storage may reach up to 43 million tons, worst-case
Pro Farmer Editors, “Ukraine Grain Production Will Plunge More Than 35%”, Agweb.com (industry blog), June 1, 2022
Ukraine’s 2022 grain crop will be sharply reduced as the war impeded planting and will affect harvest in some areas. The Ukrainian grain traders’ union UGA forecasts the country’s production at 19.2 MMT for wheat (down from a record 33 MMT in 2021), 26.1 MMT for corn (down from 37.6 MMT last year) and 6.6 MMT for barley (down from 10.1 MMT in 2021).
UGA says the country’s grain exports could reach 30 MMT, including 10 MMT of wheat and 15 MMT of corn, though it says current export capacity can’t exceed 18 MMT for 2022-23. It says grain stocks at the end of 2022-23 could reach a record 25 MMT due to the sharp fall in exports and may rise to 43 MMT in a worst-case scenario.
They’re stealing steel, too, according to METINVEST (Akhmetov), Ukraine Human Rights Ombudman Denisova and the Russians themselves
The Maritime Executive, “Russian Media Confirms Extraction of Grain, Steel From Ukraine's Ports”, Maritime-Executive.com (industry blog), May 30, 2022
Russia has admitted to taking grain and steel cargoes from Ukraine and removing them to Russian territory, confirming Ukrainian accusations of theft.
The Russian military recently finished clearing sea mines from the port of Mariupol, the decimated port city that fell to the invading force earlier this month. In addition to the installation of mass graves on the city's outskirts, Russia has begun restoring commercial traffic at the seaport, beginning with the removal of Ukrainian steel products.
Russian state outlet TASS reported Monday that an initial cargo of 2,700 tonnes of Ukrainian steel would be shipped some 100 miles from Mariupol to the Russian port of Rostov-on-Don. No commercial transaction or payment for the cargo was mentioned; the nearest producer, Mariupol's massive Azovstal plant, was destroyed and seized after a monthslong siege.
Metinvest, the Ukrainian owner and operator of Azovstal, has accused Russian forces of stealing its products from the seaport.
"On the first day of the war, metallurgical products produced at Metinvest Group’s Azovstal and Ilyich Steel iron and steel plants were in the port of Mariupol," the firm said. "The illegal actions to seize and resume the operations of the Mariupol port clearly indicate that these steel products may be exported by the occupiers to the ports of Rostov, Taganrog, Novorossiysk, Tuapse and occupied Sevastopol for the further illegal sale of the stolen products to countries of Africa and Asia that do not support the sanctions regimes [against Russia]."
"Looting in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine continues," noted Ukraine's human rights ombudsman, Lyudmyla Denisova. "Following the theft of Ukrainian grain, the occupiers resorted to exporting metal products from Mariupol."
Leveraging sanctions to end the food crisis is a non-starter
Atwood, Kylie, et al., “US officials looking to salvage Ukrainian grain with no good solution yet to Russia’s export blockade”, CNN Politics, June 1, 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday. According to a Kremlin readout, Putin said that Moscow would support an “unimpeded” export of Ukrainian grain. Putin also said that Russia was ready to “export significant volumes of fertilizers and agricultural products” – if Western sanctions were lifted, according to the Kremlin readout.
There is strong opposition to lifting of sanctions to facilitate the unblocking of the ports. Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto told CNN this week it was simply a non-starter, a sentiment echoed by US officials.
Landsbergis told CNN that the Russians believe they have leverage by blocking ships from safely transiting the Black Sea and that the world needs to make clear that this is not the case.
Third party naval escort plans are “undeveloped” as of June 2, 2022
Atwood, Kylie, et al., “US officials looking to salvage Ukrainian grain with no good solution yet to Russia’s export blockade”, CNN Politics, June 1, 2022
Turkey will likely play a significant role in brokering any potential solution to the blockade, as the country controls routes into and out of the Black Sea.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov plans to visit Turkey on June 8 to discuss a sea corridor for Ukrainian exports, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Tuesday.
The senior Biden administration official says the US is backing any diplomatic efforts with Russia, though the White House is skeptical that the talks with Turkey will lead to a breakthrough.
UN officials are more hopeful of a potential agreement and have devised a plan to get grain out of Odessa through the Black Sea, and a UN diplomat said the Turks were supportive of the idea. Martin Griffiths, a British diplomat and UN under-secretary for humanitarian affairs, will be discussing that plan when he visits Moscow this week.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted on Tuesday that Ukraine was working on an “international UN-led operation with navies of partners ensuring a safe trade route with no security risks.”
But US and European diplomats said the idea of using international navies to protect any UN-effort is still not developed and isn’t likely to happen as of now. And (Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius) Landsbergis noted that any UN effort that requires Security Council approval is poised to fail due to Russia’s membership on the council.
“I don’t see large NATO navies lining up to do that at this moment. It seems that the idea is not mature enough,” a European diplomat said.
Americans support an overland solution as of June 2
Atwood, Kylie, et al., “US officials looking to salvage Ukrainian grain with no good solution yet to Russia’s export blockade”, CNN Politics, June 1, 2022
It will also be difficult to re-orient the flow of grain shipments out of Ukraine, where the entire infrastructure is set up to transport grain south into the country’s large ports along the Black Sea, which are currently blockaded by Russian warships.
Caitlin Welsh, the director of the Global Food Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said any overland routes that US and European officials are considering for exports should be seen as a “transitional solution.”
Without much progress in the Black Sea, US officials have been promoting the prospect that overland routes can help alleviate the grain problem, at least somewhat.
At his Senate confirmation hearing last week, Biden’s nominee to be the next head of US European Command, Gen. Chris Cavoli, pointed to alternative routes for exports that included Germany’s national rail company and a Romanian port that goes through a portion of the Black Sea not being blockaded by the Russian navy.
Another administration official said the European land routes offer some potential to alleviate the logjam. “There’s wide recognition that this is probably the quickest way to address at least some of the backup exports,” the official said.
Lavrov and Erdoğan are talking about Turkish third-party safe-passage guarantees; Putin has agreed “on conditions” and the Turks have committed to building a “centre” in Istanbul to monitor
Wintour, Patrick, “Russia and the west compete to secure safe passage for Ukraine’s grain”, The Guardian (U.K.), June 2, 2022
In a game of diplomatic cat and mouse, Russia and the west are coming up with similar if sometimes competing ideas for how Ukraine’s badly needed grain can be given safe passage through the Black Sea and on to the world markets. They are also competing to win the battle for world opinion if the plans collapse.
Both sides are busy diplomatically across Africa and the Middle East trying to portray their adversary as the culprit for spiralling food and fertiliser prices. Russia and Ukraine export more than a quarter of the world’s wheat, while Russia is the world’s top fertiliser exporter. The World Bank’s Fertiliser Price Index rose nearly 10% in the first quarter of 2022, to an all-time high in nominal terms.
Ukraine’s backlog of 20m tonnes of grain needs to be exported quickly to avoid a further explosion of food prices, and also to preserve the next Ukrainian harvest that currently cannot be sent to already full storage facilities.
That is not possible due to the Russian naval blockade of the Black Sea port of Odesa, and Ukrainian floating mines planted to block the port from Russian attack. Russia, in return for lifting the blockade, wants any sanctions on its shipping and fertiliser products lifted. At issue is whether there is a deal to be done.
In what is beginning to look like the main plan, the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has agreed to meet the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, but not until 8 June, over proposals for Turkey to de-mine Odesa and then escort grain ships through to the Bosphorous along a naval corridor. Erdoğan spoke with Vladimir Putin about the proposal on Monday, and according to the Turkish read-out, Putin was willing to cooperate, on conditions.
Turkey, through the 1936 Montreux convention, is arbiter of sea traffic in and out of the Black Sea, and justifies its refusal as a Nato member to impose sanctions on Russia by pointing to this unique role. The Turkish foreign minister, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, said on Tuesday that food security was the most important question: “We are focusing on this. We are planning to establish a centre in Istanbul to observe the corridor.”
Italian PM Mario Draghi, who’s leading safe passage negotiations, says that Putin will agree as long as grain ships aren’t carrying weapons; unresolved issues of escort composition & RoE remain
Wintour, Patrick, “Russia and the west compete to secure safe passage for Ukraine’s grain”, The Guardian (U.K.), June 2, 2022
Within Europe, the Italian prime minister, Mario Draghi, has taken the practical initiative, discussing the issue first with Joe Biden a fortnight ago then last week holding talks with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, then Putin and then Zelenskiy again.
The Ukrainians have said they are willing to see Odesa de-mined, but conditions would have to be set on how the Russian navy would not use the clearance of mines as an opportunity for its warships to move closer to the port. Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said: “We must be very careful, because a unilateral guarantee from the Kremlin is not enough. We need third countries to take responsibility for enforcing the agreement.”
Italy and the UK have offered to undertake the de-mining operation, something that could take a fortnight, but Turkey may be Russia’s preferred choice to complete this perilous task.
According to Draghi, Putin has indicated that he would open access to Odesa provided valid checks could be made to ensure the grain ships were not carrying weapons for use by Ukraine. Unresolved issues also exist about the nationality of the ships escorting the convoy, and their terms of engagement if threatened by Russia.
According to Moscow, Putin noted the “readiness of the Russian side” to facilitate the unhindered sea transit of goods in coordination with Turkish partners.
Russia wants to horse-trade sanctions getting lifted for safe passage with the Turks; U.N. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield says we’ll do “comfort letters” for Russian fertilizer exports but it’s not a bargain to get the blockade lifted
Wintour, Patrick, “Russia and the west compete to secure safe passage for Ukraine’s grain”, The Guardian (U.K.), June 2, 2022
But Russia also wants in return the lifting of western sanctions on Russian fertilisers, something Draghi says is also being urged on the EU by Africa and warrants a second look.
The US is also showing some flexibility. Its ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said the US was prepared to give “comfort letters” to shipping and insurance companies to help facilitate exports of Russian grain and fertiliser.
She insisted that Russian grain and fertiliser were not under US Treasury sanctions but that “companies are a little nervous and we’re prepared to give them comfort letters if that will help to encourage them”. She stressed this was not a bargain to get the Russian blockade of the port of Odesa lifted.
A U.N. resolution establishing a corridor is a low-probability possibility as of June 2
Wintour, Patrick, “Russia and the west compete to secure safe passage for Ukraine’s grain”, The Guardian (U.K.), June 2, 2022
One possibility is that Rebecca Grynspan, a senior UN official – recently in Moscow for talks on the issue – could help negotiate a draft security council resolution backing the humanitarian corridor, an idea backed by the French president, Emmanuel Macron. One western official said: “It is unlikely even Russia could veto a resolution to feed the world simply because Russian demands on the lifting of sanctions had not been met.”
(Italian prime minister Mario) Draghi is not opposed to the UN involvement but has fears about the pace of progress. He said: “It can play an important role in resolving the crisis, but we have a duty to ask ourselves how we can help. How to accelerate, to avoid arriving late.”
However, the UK, Poland and Baltic states are sceptical that Putin will ever agree.
The U.K. and Lithuania have a third-party plan without NATO ships
Wintour, Patrick, “Russia and the west compete to secure safe passage for Ukraine’s grain”, The Guardian (U.K.), June 2, 2022
Britain backed Lithuania’s proposal for a similar convoy plan, but one that did not depend on Russian cooperation. It proposed a coalition of the willing – not a Nato force – to escort ships.
Egypt, one of the many middle- and lower-income countries heavily dependent on Ukrainian and Russian grain, was mentioned as a possible member of the coalition. The plan certainly seemed to gain favour with the hawkish UK foreign secretary, Liz Truss, when she met the Lithuanian foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis. It was significant that Poland’s president, Andrzej Duda, made a rare visit to Cairo this week to discuss the grain crisis.
Milley argues that sea lanes are a high-risk endeavor; Draghi Macron & Scholz think we should test Putin out on it; that leaves land & river routes, excluding Belarusian railways
Wintour, Patrick, “Russia and the west compete to secure safe passage for Ukraine’s grain”, The Guardian (U.K.), June 2, 2022
But Gen Mark Milley, the chair of the US joint Chiefs of Staff, struck a cautious note in London on Tuesday, saying: “To open up those sea lanes would require a very significant military effort.” If policymakers opted for it, “it would be a high-risk military operation that would require significant levels of effort”, he said. It is for that reason Draghi, Macron and the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, felt that it was necessary to test Putin out.
If none of the sea-route options works, the only alternative is to intensify the use of existing and much more expensive routes that take grain on trucks through Poland to Baltic and Polish ports, or on barges down the Dnieper River to Romanian ports and finally via train to Poland. The option of taking grain by train through Belarus looks impossible due to Minsk’s demands for sanctions on potash to be lifted.
Ships are fastest but the Black Sea is “pretty complicated”, rail is safest but also “complicated”, cargo planes are “very unlikely”
Atwood, Kylie, et al., “US officials looking to salvage Ukrainian grain with no good solution yet to Russia’s export blockade”, CNN Politics, June 1, 2022
The most efficient way to transport the grain would be to ship it, but Russia’s blockade represents a huge challenge. Sea routes are still under consideration, possibly using neutral UN-marked boats, the sources said. But there are concerns about how practical it would be to test such an idea with an aggressive Russia, diplomats said.
“The Black Sea is not entirely ruled out but it’s pretty complicated,” one said, adding that Guterres has been actively involved in those preliminary discussions on getting goods out by ship.
Using cargo planes is the least likely of the three options, the official added, due to the dangers in the air and their relatively small capacity compared to trains and ships.
Russia has managed to seal off Ukraine’s access to the Sea of Azov but Ukraine retains control over its Black Sea coastline and the port of Odesa, its primary maritime export hub. Still, due to Russian aggressions, ships are not leaving Odesa right now. Russia has also struck the port with missiles and the presence of Russian and Ukrainian mines makes in the sea makes voyages dangerous.
Turkey – which is a major player in the Black Sea and controls access to it – is involved in the discussions with the Russians on this effort, said a US official and another source familiar with the ongoing conversations.
“There is a swathe of diplomacy on applying pressure to Russia to encourage safe corridor and that’s where the UN has more focus,” a European diplomat said.
The diplomats tell CNN that one solution would be to ship the grain via rail given that, for now, it’s the safest way to transport large volumes. Talks also are taking place between Ukraine and the European Union about using rail to transport supplies into Romania, Slovakia and Poland. However, the efforts are being complicated by differences in the rail systems used by Ukraine and neighboring countries.
Zelenskyy is warning of political chaos, mass migration and famine if supply problems aren’t solved
Posaner, Joshua, “Zelenskyy: Ukraine grain blockade will spark famine, migration”, Politico, June 2, 2022
Russia's maritime blockade of Ukraine is causing a "catastrophic" rise in the price of food and basic goods, which will lead to protests, famine and migration around the world, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Thursday.
"The world is now teetering on the cusp of a food security crisis," Zelenskyy told an audience via video link at the start of the Globsec conference in Bratislava. "There is a ... catastrophic rise in prices of basic products in various countries."
Since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine nearly 100 days ago, access to Ukraine's maritime ports have been closed off, which makes it impossible to shift grain and other food products out onto the global market by sea.
That means millions of tons of wheat and grain remain locked inside Ukraine, putting pressure on import-dependent states in North Africa and the Middle East that are usually reliant on the Ukrainian harvest.
"If we do not avert [the supply problems] we will see political chaos in Africa and Asia, and an ensuing migration crisis in Europe when people suffering from famine will seek refuge elsewhere," Zelenskyy told the conference audience.