On a slightly more serious note, though, perhaps someone into crypto will find it interesting to check these assumptions:
Suppose I'm a Russian billionaire and I do not want my money to be seized.
Since 2015 I've seen the sanctions heat coming. So, much like any other sane person worth more money than they know what to do with, I'm heavy into bitCoin.
I'm not into Monero, or Ethereum, or Cardono, or Ripple - not entirely, not as much as bitCoin, because bitCoin is comparatively stable, and it's absolutely ideal for cross-border money-laundering.
Factor in the state of sanctions today, which I've seen coming since at least Q4 2021 and probably much earlier. If my money isn't out of rubles to the greatest extent possible, I'm frantically trying to move it now.
Factor in constant, ongoing DoJ busts of bitCoin money laundering and crime - in February, "Ilya Lichtenstein, 34, and his wife, Heather Morgan, 31, both of New York, New York", who attempted to launder 119,754 bitCoin worth $3.6 billion. This is not a good time to be moving money around.
There are two scenarios given that kind of heat.
1. My money is off exchanges, I've bought and paid for it in cash or other untraceable methods of acquisition, and it's essentially invisible unless I cash it in. It's completely illiquid, though in sufficient quantities I suppose it could function as effective collateral.
2. My money is on an exchange, in which case, it is more liquid and useable, but also, much easier to find and seize. There is a non-trivial risk that I own the exchange - I'm a Russian billionaire, international borders don't matter to me.
Scenario 2 limits the range of exchanges that I can be on.
I need to be on something that's large enough to support billions of dollars in volume.
On the other hand, I need to be on something that's small enough, or foreign enough, not to have finCen reporting requirements.
That makes it easier to find than it should be. Theoretically, if I work backwards from a list of all exchanges matching that profile, and look for large transactions or patterns of small transactions matching my profile - especially on or around critical dates in Russian geopolitical events - then I'm fairly likely to hit pay dirt somewhere, I'd think.
Scenario 1, on the other hand, is interesting if we start to tie together recent reports of bitCoin whale activity using dormant coins from 2010.
A massive bitCoin whale worth over $5 billion, using old coins that could have been bought and paid for in cash... trading right around day 14 of the Ukraine war, then day 22...
That starts to get very, very interesting, actually. Let me be explicit about why:
There is a literal, not figurative, bounty worth up to $5 million on Russian kleptocrat assets - in practice, a reward for information leading to the seizure, forfeiture or repatriation of assets owned by sanctioned Russian billionaires.
I'm guessing that would include bitCoin.