As of December 14, 2021, CSIS assessed that a Russian mercenary base run by Wagner was being built just south of Président Modibo Keïta International Airport in Mali.
The images they posted have interesting differences to the latest images available in Google Earth.
This is relevant because of Wagner's role in massacres in Mali, which are relevant to Mali's role in migration; armed conflict is the cause of 46% of Malian refugees and internally displaced persons as of July 2020.
Migration is relevant because we've seen Russia use migrants as a "weapon of hybrid war" on the Belarusian border, and a lot of migration is expected to happen if the international food crisis continues. A lot of that - most of that - is going to hit Europe, where it's going to destabilize countries in a way that will tend to favor right-wing extremists.
Potential sanctions designations arising out of this are almost trivial by comparison to the value that would arise from proving that Russia is actually inflicting famine and instability onto the Sahel region as a method of increasing destabilization that furthers its leverage against countries in-region and increasing migrant outflows to Europe.
At the very least, if there's a "smoking gun" out of this, that’s going to be significant for people in-region; and I suspect that the timeline and public information are going to line up to something very much like it, because, I mean… just look at what scratching at the surface gets you.
The massacres in Moura took place in March, and where do you think those missing vehicles in late February were?