How grain theft might fit into the Russian occupation of Ukraine
Speculation upon the evidence
This is an interesting highlight from today's ISW summary:
Russian-backed occupation authorities are attempting to set conditions for the political integration of occupied areas into the Russian Federation but are likely acting independently and in an incoherent manner due to the lack of a unifying occupation authority.
It answers a few more basic questions about what exactly is going on with that grain theft in context of the global food crisis at hand (see cards & summaries here, here, and here).
I can put additional color on the answers to these questions, at least.
First, upon looking at a lot of grain theft and grain destruction reports from all over Ukraine, I think it’s safe to say that the reports of specifically Chechens involved in this practice seems to be limited to Kherson area, specifically to one report from a Ukrainian farm owner.
Second, the people who are loading grain into trucks appear to be either the soldiers tasked with it, or farmers who have been coerced into the task.
Third, whoever is handling the money for Kadyrov that comes from this, if there is any, is a fairly answered question. My current guess is Kenes “Kenny” Rakishev (“oh my god, they sanctioned Kenny!”), but this is highly speculative at this point.
Fourth, we can make better guesses right now as to why the Chechens and the separatists aren’t beefing over this.
Lack of a "unifying occupation authority", if the ISW assessment is correct, means that no one single entity is running the grain thefts at the regional level.
Think about it from the viewpoint of a Russian commander out there tasked with stealing grain. You aren't getting "points on the package" - a share of the profit downstream - because there isn't a single entity there to pay that to you.
This partially explains the bank seizure behavior by the separatist republics, or at least doesn’t conflict. The assets in the territory they seize aren’t being remanded to the custody of some Russian Federation account somewhere; it’s going straight to their (pardon me) dinky little separatist money-laundering quote-unquote “bank”.
I speculate that means two things are potentially happening:
1 - An economic "gray zone" competition area, where gangs of Chechens, and starving separatists near mutiny, and lord-knows-what on the Russian mob end of things, are all out there competing over who gets to steal what, while Kirill “Baby Nunchaku” Stremousov gets out there on TASS and just lies about it.
In this theory, there's no master plan for steps 1-5; it's just whatever emerges from the market. KMK, LLC, the company I’ve been looking at about that’s running the cargo ships carrying stolen grain, isn’t getting a percentage here, no more than Seitumer Nimetullaev the Crimean farm magnate; they’re just contractors like the people out there stealing grain or selling it; parts of a chain, in other words.
2 - high-level "steal food!" order being carried out by multiple entities who don’t know each other. This would explain why separatists aren’t angry about Chechens stealing grain that they should be stealing, nor are Chechens angry about why they aren’t getting it.
There are reports of Chechens fighting with separatist forces as far back as 2014, of course (see Speri, Alice, “Yes, There Are Chechen Fighters in Ukraine, and Nobody Knows Who Sent Them There”, Vice News, May 28, 2014), so it shouldn’t be any surprise that they aren’t at each others’ throats. Given the conflicting and often early reports of Chechens’ progress in the war that emanate from Ramzan Kadyrov, as well as reports of near-mutiny on the part of separatists, it suggests that they may simply have their own problems to handle, because it’s a war.