Severedonetsk was a key point as of May 28, 2022
Kagan, Frederick W., et al., “RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MAY 28”, Institute for the Study of War Ukraine Project, May 28, 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin is inflicting unspeakable suffering on Ukrainians and demanding horrible sacrifices of his own people in an effort to seize a city that does not merit the cost, even for him.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine that aimed to seize and occupy the entire country has become a desperate and bloody offensive to capture a single city in the east while defending important but limited gains in the south and east. Ukraine has twice forced Putin to define down his military objectives. Ukraine defeated Russia in the Battle of Kyiv, forcing Putin to reduce his subsequent military objectives to seizing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine stopped him from achieving that aim as well, forcing him to focus on completing the seizure of Luhansk Oblast alone. Putin is now hurling men and munitions at the last remaining major population center in that oblast, Severodonetsk, as if taking it would win the war for the Kremlin. He is wrong. When the Battle of Severodonetsk ends, regardless of which side holds the city, the Russian offensive at the operational and strategic levels will likely have culminated, giving Ukraine the chance to restart its operational-level counteroffensives to push Russian forces back.
Russian forces are assaulting Severdonetsk even though they have not yet encircled it. They are making territorial gains and may succeed in taking the city and areas further west. The Ukrainian military is facing the most serious challenge it has encountered since the isolation of the Azovstal Plant in Mariupol and may well suffer a significant tactical defeat in the coming days if Severodonetsk falls, although such an outcome is by no means certain, and the Russian attacks may well stall again.
The Russians are paying a price for their current tactical success that is out of proportion to any real operational or strategic benefit they can hope to receive. Severodonetsk itself is important at this stage in the war primarily because it is the last significant population center in Luhansk Oblast that the Russians do not control. Seizing it will let Moscow declare that it has secured Luhansk Oblast fully but will give Russia no other significant military or economic benefit. This is especially true because Russian forces are destroying the city as they assault it and will control its rubble if they capture it. Taking Severodonetsk can open a Russian ground line of communication (GLOC) to support operations to the west, but the Russians have failed to secure much more advantageous GLOCs from Izyum partly because they have concentrated so much on Severodonetsk.
CNN confirms Severodonetsk is a key focus for Russian military as of May 30, 2022
Raine, Andrew, et al., “It's 7 a.m. in Kyiv. Here's what you need to know”, CNN tracker, May 30, 2022
Russia attacks Severodonetsk: The Ukrainian military says Russian shelling across the border into the northern regions of Sumy and Chernihiv has resumed. "The main goal of the enemy is to surround our troops in the areas of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk and to block the main logistics routes," the Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces said. It added that Russian forces are "trying to gain a foothold on the northeastern outskirts of the city of Severodonetsk, conducting assault operations in the direction of the city center."
Ukrainian troops have repelled multiple attempts by Russians to advance into Severodonetsk
Al Jazeera staff, “‘Enemy moving in’: Fierce battle as Russian troops storm key city”, Al Jazeera, May 30, 2022
Haidai said the neighbouring city of Lysychansk was still under Ukrainian control, while the main road into the two cities has been shelled but not blocked.
“They [Russian army] use the same tactics over and over again. They shell for several hours – for three, four, five hours – in a row and then attack. Those who attack die. Then shelling and attack follow again, and so until they break through somewhere,” Haidai said.
Two civilians were killed and five wounded by Russian shelling on Monday, he added.
Severodonetsk’s critical infrastructure was destroyed and 60 percent of damaged residential buildings cannot be restored, the governor said. He added three doctors in the area were reported missing after their vehicle was discovered badly damaged.
About one million people have been left without water supplies in the region, said Haidai.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the situation as “indescribably difficult”.
‘Russians don’t care about casualties’
Having failed to take the capital Kyiv in the early phase of the war, Russia is seeking to consolidate its grip on the Donbas, large parts of which are already controlled by Moscow-backed separatists.
Unlike in the previous stages of the war, which Moscow calls a “special military operation” to demilitarize Ukraine and rid it of nationalists threatening Russian-speakers there, Russia has concentrated its firepower on a small area.
Russian forces earlier said they captured Lyman, a smaller town and former railway hub in the area, and are ramping up pressure on Severodonetsk and its sister city Lysychansk.
“Capturing Severodonetsk is a principal task for the occupation force,” Zelenskyy said, adding “the Russians don’t care about casualties”.
Severodonetsk is a ruin with Russian troops advancing into the “stench of bodies” as of May 30, 2022
Falconer, Rebecca, “"Stench of bodies" reported as Russian troops enter key Ukrainian city”, Axios, May 30, 2022
Russian troops were "advancing into the middle of Severodonetsk," the last remaining major city in the Luhansk region of the Donbas under Ukrainian control, a regional governor warned Monday.
Driving the news: Putin's forces had been been trying to encircle Severodonetsk for days, cutting aid and services — raising concerns that the besieged eastern Ukrainian city could face the same fate as the fallen port of Mariupol, AP notes.
Luhansk region Gov. Serhiy Haidai said in a Telegram post that heavy fighting continued, but "the situation is very difficult."
The Russian military assault on Severodonetsk has left about 1,500 people dead, according to Haidai, who said Monday that further shelling had killed two more residents and wounded five others.
What they're saying: "The weather is quite hot right now," Haidai said in another post. "And all over Severodonetsk's outskirts, we have this persistent corpse stench because [Russian forces] are not taking the bodies."
President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his nightly address that 90% of Severodonetsk's houses had been damaged.
"More than two-thirds of the city's housing stock has been completely destroyed," he added. "There is no mobile connection. Constant shelling."
Ukrainian counterattack in the south underway as of May 29, 2022
Kramer, Andrew E., and Horowitz, Jason, “Ukraine Battle Expands as Kyiv Launches Counteroffensive”, The New York Times, May 29, 2022
Kherson, a port city in Ukraine’s agricultural heartland, was the first major city to fall as Russian forces swept north out of Crimea more than three months ago. After seizing it, Moscow used the city as a staging ground for operations across southern Ukraine.
But in recent weeks, Russian forces — stretched thin and taking heavy losses as they gain ground in the eastern Donbas region — have concentrated their efforts in the south on fortifying defensive positions. Satellite images have shown Russians scrambling to build fortifications in Kherson, where the shoots of an insurgency surfaced this month.
It was not clear if they were prepared for the Ukrainian counterattack.
The Ukrainian military headquarters said in a statement that its forces had broken through a Russian line of defense and pushed the Russians into less favorable terrain near the villages of Andriyivka, Lozove and Belihorka. The counteroffensive also sought to threaten Russia’s supply routes on bridges over the Dnipro River.
Ukraine had been telegraphing the counteroffensive for days, though it had said such a maneuver would require the Western artillery systems promised by the United States and other allies. It was unclear on Sunday what artillery Ukraine was using in its counteroffensive.
In a war that is increasingly becoming an arms race, powerful American-made howitzers reached Ukrainian forces this month, and Ukrainian troops recently received Harpoon anti-ship cruise missiles from Denmark. Ukraine’s defense minister, Oleksiy Reznikov, said they would be used to try to break Russia’s Black Sea blockade and to protect the port city of Odesa.
Ukrainian Army General Staff Twitter confirms Kherson offensive May 28, 2022
@generalStaffUA Twitter account, May 28, 2022, accessed May 30, 2022
Ukrainian counter-attack in the south making limited progress as of May 30, 2022
Hird, Karolina, et al., “RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MAY 29”, Institute for the Study of War Ukraine Project, May 30, 2022
The ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in northwestern Kherson Oblast did not make any confirmed advances on May 29, and Russian forces focused on maintaining their defensive positions and launching limited attacks to regain lost ground.[16] The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces took up defensive positions in Kostromka, a settlement in northwestern Kherson Oblast within 10 km of the Kherson-Mykolaiv oblast border.[17] Reporting by Russian and Ukrainian sources indicates that Ukrainian troops likely conducted a counter-offensive south of the village of Davydiv Brid and east of the Inhulets River on May 28.[18] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces are attempting to recapture positions in Andriivka, Bilohirka, and Bila Krynytsia, indicating the Ukrainian counteroffensive south of Davydiv Brid recaptured these positions on the Kherson-Mykolaiv border on May 28.[19] Russian forces are reportedly fighting around Vysokopillya, Dobryanka, and Kochubeivka, all settlements in northern Kherson Oblast.[20] Russian forces conducted artillery strikes against Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts and a missile strike against Kryvyi Rih.[21]
Russia is reportedly shipping steel out of Mariupol now; Russia still plans to integrate Kherson
Hird, Karolina, et al., “RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MAY 29”, Institute for the Study of War Ukraine Project, May 30, 2022
Russian forces continued to consolidate their administrative control of occupied regions on May 29. Russian occupation forces are reportedly shipping looted rolled steel and metal to Russia through the Port of Mariupol.[22] The Russian-backed head of Kherson’s civil-military administration, Kirill Stremousov, told Reuters that the decision for Kherson to join Russia will likely occur next year and walked back his previous statements that Kherson would join Russia automatically by stating there will be a “referendum.”[23] Stremousov said that the occupation administration is focusing on restoring order in Kherson before making decisions on a potential referendum to join the Russian Federation, indicating that Ukrainian partisan activities may be disrupting ongoing efforts to consolidate full Russian administrative control of Kherson Oblast.
Evacuations in Luhansk by Ukrainians have been suspended due to attacks on evacuees, including a French journalist
Serhiy Haidai, “✅A short evening report on May 30”, Telegram, May 30, 2022
[machine translation]
📌racists advanced into Severodonetsk, street fighting continues
❗️residents are strongly advised to stay in shelters❗️
📍We hope that the missing doctors are alive, because no bodies have been found in the ambulance
📍volunteers who have come under fire are feeling well
📍As a result of today's shelling of an evacuation vehicle near Lysychansk (it has not yet been established whether it was an air bomb or a large-caliber projectile), a French journalist was killed, a patrol policeman was injured, and another journalist and translator were injured. Everyone is taken to the hospital in Dnipro
📌evacuation from Luhansk region was suspended until the security situation stabilized[original Ukrainian]
(рашисти просунулися всередину Сєвєродонецька, тривають вуличні бої
❗️мешканцям наполегливо радимо залишатися в укриттях❗️
📍Маємо надію, що зниклі лікарі живі, адже в підбитій «швидкій» тіла не виявлені
📍волонтери, які раніше потрапили під обстріл почувають себе задовільно
📍внаслідок сьогоднішнього обстрілу евакуаційного транспорту під Лисичанськом (ще не встановлено чи це була авіабомба чи снаряд крупного калібру) - загинув французький журналіст, дістав поранення патрульний поліцейський, ще один журналіст та перекладачка отримали контузію. Усіх везуть в лікарню в Дніпро
📌евакуацію з Луганщини зупинено до стабілізації безпекової ситуації)
Putin may be taking personal control over company-level decisions in the campaign for the Donetsk Basin
Barnes, Joe & Nicholls, Dominic, “Vladimir Putin takes personal control of Russia's faltering Donbas offensive”, The Telegraph, May 17, 2022
Vladimir Putin has taken personal control over Russia’s faltering efforts to capture Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, a source said.
The Russian President and the head of his armed forces, General Valery Gerasimov, were said to be interfering in low-level tactical decisions usually made by much junior figures.
"We think Putin and Gerasimov are involved in tactical decision-making at a level we would normally expect to be taken by a colonel or a brigadier," the source said.
The source added that Mr Putin’s most senior general was still “up and running” despite claims he had been suspended after a series of military failures in Ukraine.
It was suggested that the pair could be meddling in the movements of Russian units containing as little as 700 to 1,000 soldiers.
Western officials believe that Moscow’s micromanagement of the war in Ukraine could be a contributing factor to the Russian military’s slow progress in the Donbas, where troops have failed to make significant territorial gains.
HIMARS rocket systems to be sent to Ukraine can fire M30 and M31 projectiles to 70km and ATACMS missiles to 300km
Trevithick, Joseph & Rogoway, Tyler, “The Reality Of What HIMARS Rocket Artillery Systems Can And Can’t Do For Ukraine”, The Drive, May 26, 2022
Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, as well as experts and observers, have repeatedly called directly and indirectly for the U.S. military to send M142s, or M270s, to help with the war effort. A Tweet just yesterday, seen below, from Mykola Bielieskov, a Research Fellow at the Ukrainian government-run National Institute for Strategic Studies, sums up the general argument well. Bielieskov's Twitter post was accompanied by a picture of an M270.
The maximum range of either of these systems is dependent on what type of munition they're firing. The longest range artillery rockets currently available for the system are the M30 (submunition warhead) and M31 (unitary warhead) precision-guided types, which are GPS/INS guided and can hit targets out to around 43 miles (70 kilometers). The far larger ATACMS missiles can engage threats out to 186 miles (300 kilometers) depending on the variant.
To be sure, a Ukrainian military acquisition of either the M270 or the HIMARS presents clear benefits. The most immediate of these would be fielding a new artillery rocket system that is in production and has a well-established supply chain in place in the West. At present, the bulk of Ukraine's rocket artillery capability comes from Soviet-era designs, some of which have been modernized by domestic companies over the years. The Ukrainian armed forces have now received a number of RM-70 multiple rocket launchers (MRL) from the Czech Republic, but these are still Cold War-era systems designed to fire Soviet-standard 122mm rockets. They also use a wide range of other Soviet-era artillery rocket systems.
From a tactical perspective, MLRS and HIMARS are likely to be generally more accurate systems, even with unguided rockets, than any of the rocket artillery systems that are currently in Ukrainian service. The fact that the same launcher can fire ATACMS gives it additional flexibility and a true long-range standoff precision capability beyond the limitations of traditional MRLS.
Due to protest from Russia we may not send ATACMS
Liptak, Kevin, “US President Biden says he won't send rockets to Ukraine that could reach Russia”, CNN, May 30, 2022
I won't send anything that can fire into Russia," Biden said at the White House on Monday when asked whether he was planning to send long-range rockets to Ukraine.
CNN reported last week the Biden administration is preparing to step up the kind of weaponry it is offering Ukraine by sending advanced, long-range rocket systems that are now the top request from Ukrainian officials.
The administration is leaning toward sending the systems as part of a larger package of military and security assistance to Ukraine, which could be announced as soon as next week.
The administration has wavered on whether to send the systems amid concerns raised within the National Security Council that Ukraine could use the new weapons to carry out offensive attacks inside Russia, according to officials.
On Friday, after CNN first reported the news, Russians warned that the United States will “cross a red line” if it supplies the systems to Ukraine.
More background: The rocket systems the Biden administration is preparing to send to Ukraine are capable of firing different kinds of ammunition that reach a range of distances.
While some of the longer-range weapons can fire 300 miles (or about 500 kilometers) or more, the systems can also launch rockets with a range of just a few dozen miles — not considered long-range weapons but still able to reach a greater distance than the howitzers the US has already sent to Ukraine.
The Battle of the Bulge demonstrates the necessity for creative responses to last-ditch offensive moves
Hanson, Victor Davis, “Recalling the Battle of the Bulge”, National Review, December 26, 2019
The American and British armies were completely surprised by a last-gasp German offensive, given that Allied forces were near the Rhine River and ready to cross into Germany to finish off a crippled Third Reich.
The Americans had been exhausted by a rapid 300-mile summer advance to free much of France and Belgium. In their complacence, they oddly did not worry much about their thinning lines, often green replacement troops, or the still-formidable Germany army. After all, Nazi Germany was being battered on all sides by Americans, British, Canadians, and Russians. Its cities were in ruins from heavy bombers.
Yet the losing side is often the most dangerous just before its collapse.
In retreat, the Germans were shortening their interior lines. They had the element of surprise, given confident allies who assumed the war would soon be over.
The cold December weather would ground the overwhelming number of Allied fighters and bombers. The Germans aimed their assault through the snowy roads of the Ardennes Mountains to bowl over inexperienced or exhausted U.S. divisions.
The result was that Hitler’s last gamble in the West was as tactically brilliant as it was strategically imbecilic. If Hitler’s offensive failed, it would drain the last formidable reserves from the German homeland and leave it a hollow shell. After all, Germany had neither the manpower nor the supplies to reach the English Channel and cut off the British from the Americans, much less stop either the Russian offensives in the East or around-the-clock Allied bombing.
Yet, during last two weeks of December, crack German veterans tore huge holes in the Allied lines and pushed them back almost 50 miles in some spots. On such a narrow front, German forces outnumbered the Americans, and their tanks and artillery were superior.
General Dwight D. Eisenhower, commander of Allied Forces in Western Europe, never expected that a tottering Germany could muster 400,000 attackers with roughly 600 tanks and massive artillery support — all secretly massed just a few miles beyond Allied lines.
Yet by the second week in January, the month-long offensive had largely failed. The Germans were in retreat. They had lost almost as many men and machines as the Americans but lacked a commensurate ability to replace them.
What can we learn from our bloodiest battle on the 75th anniversary of it?
The deadliest periods of a war are often near its end. The losing side puts up a desperate resistance that is often unexpected by the overconfident, winning opponents. One of the most lethal American battles in the Pacific Theater was fought at Okinawa, costing 50,000 casualties and ending just weeks before Japan surrendered.
American strategists failed to grasp that even though Germany was likely to lose the war sometime in 1945, it could still kill thousands of Americans before it surrendered.
Before the Battle of the Bulge, Eisenhower, Omar Bradley, Bernard Montgomery, and Courtney Hodges thought fellow general George S. Patton was a talented, eccentric, flamboyant, and sometimes buffoonish throwback to 19th-century glory hounds. Yet it was Patton alone who in America’s darkest hour of 1944 most clearly grasped both the dangers of, and the solutions to, the disaster.
To no avail, Patton had warned his superiors that a gambler like Hitler would likely try something desperate in December. Even before the generals met, Patton had preplanned a risky rescue operation. In a blizzard, he turned a large part of his army 90 degrees on a 100-mile trek to save the collapsing American lines to the north at Bastogne, Belgium.
Had the American command followed the rambunctious Patton’s recommendation to cut off the overexposed German bulge at its base, rather than conservatively try to push it back at the nose, the campaign would have ended even sooner, with far fewer lost American lives.
The face of war changes with new technology. But its essence remains the same, because human nature stays constant. A long-ago American victory can remind us that when such calamities strike, the status quo is not always equipped to rise to the challenge.
Instead, our future saviors are often right in our midst, characteristically loud and underappreciated, but savvy and vital to our survival.